Daily Summary · June 2, 2026 · Announcement
AIADMK Factions Both Eye Rajya Sabha Seat They Cannot Win — Congress Victory on June 18 Is a Foregone Conclusion
With AIADMK's Assembly strength fallen to 43 and still declining, neither the EPS nor rebel faction can influence the June 18 Rajya Sabha outcome — making Congress's election a certainty for the TVK-led alliance.
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Both AIADMK factions — the EPS-led mainstream and the CV Shanmugam-led rebel camp — engaged in separate discussions over the Rajya Sabha by-election on Tuesday, despite neither having the numbers to influence the outcome.
AIADMK's Assembly strength has fallen dramatically from its original 66 seats to around 43, with further resignations pending court disposal. It cannot independently win a single Rajya Sabha seat.
With TVK commanding 159 votes (with coalition support) in the 234-member House, the June 18 election is mathematically decided: the seat goes to the TVK alliance's choice, Congress.
The AIADMK's internal discussion about the RS bypoll is widely seen as a face-saving exercise rather than a credible electoral strategy — the party is still grappling with its post-split identity crisis.
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